The first edition of “Simulation of Output Curtailment of PV Power Generation in Japan” published in 2016 received high appreciation from a diverse range of our clients including PV power producers, financial institutions and so on. Since then, our clients requested a report on output curtailment with simulations of even higher accuracy, and we published the second edition of the report to meet their requests.
In the 2nd Edition of the report, a review was made on PV systems subject to output curtailment by capacity range and service area of electric utilities so that simulations are based on output curtailment rules in Japan. The 2nd Edition of the report has higher accuracy of simulations by service area of electric utilities, than that of the 1st Edition of the report.
Based on the assumptions of operation and electricity demand trends of all the power generation facilities including PV systems across Japan by fiscal year, wide-area supply and demand analysis model of the electric grid taking into account of supply/ demand adjustment capability was used. Detailed simulations were made on an hourly basis for 20 years and amount of output curtailment was estimated by service area of electric utility and by fiscal year. We hope this report contributes to simulating revenues from investment in PV projects by our clients.