RTS Corporation has released the English version of “Forecasting PV Installed Capacity in Japan toward FY 2030/2050 (2019 – 2020 Edition)” on Monday, December 9, 2019.
In this report, RTS made forecasts on the PV installed capacity in Japan toward FY 2030 and FY 2050 based on the “Fifth Strategic Energy Plan” that positions renewable energy as a mainstream power source, as well as the global trends of PV power generation. RTS forecasted the annual and cumulative PV installed capacities taking into account of the social backgrounds and cost reduction of PV system to the international level toward FY 2030. In addition, a specific path for “150 GW PV installed capacity in Japan by 2030” that RTS has been proposing was shown. Moreover, consideration was given so that the forecasts work as a key to future business planning by presenting an image of PV installation towards FY 2050.
This report also reflects zero Yen installation business models based on the “third party ownership model” that the industry is working on as post-FIT measures, sales of storage battery systems as a part of post-FIT measures represented by the “Year 2019 issue”, etc. and includes post-FIT market forecast and residential/ industrial market forecasts.
The analysis of the forecasts of PV installed capacity was made under two cases, “BAU scenario” in which policies and deregulation will progress as an extension of the present, and the “accelerated installation and technology development scenario (accelerated scenario)” in which ambitious policies will be set out and development of PV and balance of system (BOS) technologies will be accelerated. As a result, the market is estimated to reach 8 GW annually and 133 GW cumulatively by FY 2030 (DC based, same applies hereinafter) under the “BAU scenario”, and 12 GW annually and 158 GW cumulatively under the “accelerated scenario”. Analysis considering the removal (reuse, recycle, disposal, etc.) of PV systems was also made.
For the forecasts of the installed capacity by capacity range under the “BAU scenario” and “accelerated scenario,” the expansion of the self-consumption market and the market in which supply and demand are integrated (supply/ demand integrated market) following the termination of the FIT program plays an important role. In the first half of 2020s, the market will be driven by the self-consumption market and the supply/ demand integrated market through new business models such as zero Yen installation, etc. while PV systems utilizing the FIT program and tender scheme will hold the market share.
As for commercial PV systems, transition from ground-mounted to rooftop installations will occur. Furthermore, in the 2030s, the “new application market” that will cultivate the world of entirely new application will grow, and may grow further to the market with annual capacity of 12 to 22 GW in FY 2050.
Besides, the trend of installed capacity “by application”, and trend of installed capacity “by service area of electric company” which indicates regional distribution, are also shown with detailed data.
On the premise of forecasting installed capacity, the top runner prices of residential and industrial PV systems will continue to drop greatly reflecting the international price level. The PV system price is 152 to 252 Yen/W as of today but is estimated to reduce to 89 to 108 Yen/W by FY 2030 under the “accelerated scenario”. The estimated levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is already 11.8 to 14.6 Yen/kWh as of today, which is cheaper than the grid electricity. Furthermore, the price is estimated to decrease to almost the level of avoidable cost, 5.3 to 5.7 Yen/kWh by FY 2030.
The price and installed capacity of “storage system”, an essential partner of the PV system that takes an important role of distributed power source, were forecasted for the first time in this report. The installed capacity of residential storage system (stationary storage battery and V2H (Vehicle to Home) system, etc.) will expand driven by the post-FIT demand, etc. and may grow to maximum 3,900 MWh/year by FY 2030. Meanwhile, the installed capacity of industrial storage system will expand, led by the growth of supply/ demand integrated market, etc. and may grow to maximum 4,000 MWh/year by FY 2030.
For details of RTS English reports, please click here.