{"id":14445,"date":"2025-08-28T09:00:40","date_gmt":"2025-08-28T00:00:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rts-pv.com\/en\/?post_type=blogs&p=14445"},"modified":"2025-08-27T09:28:57","modified_gmt":"2025-08-27T00:28:57","slug":"future-electricity-demand-forecast","status":"publish","type":"blogs","link":"https:\/\/www.rts-pv.com\/en\/blogs\/14445\/","title":{"rendered":"Future Electricity Demand Forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Japan Solar Update: No.163 (Aug 25 ~ 29, 2025)\u00a0<\/h6>\n<\/div>\n
\"Electricity<\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Japan is gradually shaping a clearer picture of its future power supply as it moves toward 2050. At the 10th Meeting on Future Power Supply and Demand Scenarios held in June 2025, multiple model scenarios for electricity supply and demand in 2040 and 2050 were presented\u2014highlighting key assumptions and outlooks for future energy planning.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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<Key points><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  • The Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators (OCCTO) compiled a draft report from the Study Group on the Future Electricity Supply and Demand Scenarios, presenting multiple scenarios for the supply-demand balance in 2040 and 2050<\/li>\n
  • In the 2050 model scenarios, the electricity demand is assumed to range from 950 TWh to 1,250 TWh. Installed capacity assumptions include 45\u201390 GW of onsite PV system (at demand locations), 75\u201390 GW of commercial PV systems, 11 GW of onsite storage batteries (at demand locations), and 10\u201313 GW of grid-scale storage batteries<\/li>\n
  • Going forward, OCCTO will regularly monitor changes in assumptions and other factors, and plans to review the scenarios every three to five years<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n

     <\/p>\n

    \n

    Draft report of the Study Group on the Future Electricity Supply and Demand Scenarios<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Withe the aim of referring to the scenarios for facilitating the smooth implementation of long-term decarbonized power source auctions and other measures, and for advancing power source development in a planned manner, the scenarios are studied without necessarily presupposing consistency with the Strategic Energy Plan or other policies<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Demand and Supply capacity were assumed within a certain range, and multiple scenarios for the supply-demand balance in 2040 and 2050\u00a0were presented<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    <List of components in the model scenarios><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    <\/td>\nModel Scenario in 2040<\/strong><\/td>\nModel Scenario in 2050<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Electricity Demand<\/strong><\/td>\n900 B kWh<\/strong><\/td>\n1100 B kWh<\/strong><\/td>\n950 B kWh<\/strong><\/td>\n1050 B kWh<\/strong><\/td>\n1150 B kWh<\/strong><\/td>\n1250 B kWh<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Onsite PV (at demand locations)<\/strong><\/td>\n35GW<\/strong><\/td>\n70GW<\/strong><\/td>\n45GW<\/strong><\/td>\n60GW<\/strong><\/td>\n75Gw<\/strong><\/td>\n90GW<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Commercial PV<\/strong><\/td>\n70GW<\/strong><\/td>\n85GW<\/strong><\/td>\n75GW<\/strong><\/td>\n80GW<\/strong><\/td>\n85GW<\/strong><\/td>\n90GW<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Onshore Wind<\/strong><\/td>\n8GW<\/td>\n13GW<\/td>\n8GW<\/td>\n10GW<\/td>\n12.5GW<\/td>\n14.5GW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Offshore Wine<\/strong><\/td>\n7.5GW<\/td>\n22GW<\/td>\n13GW<\/td>\n18GW<\/td>\n23GW<\/td>\n28GW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Hydro<\/strong><\/td>\n23GW<\/td>\n25GW<\/td>\n22.5GW<\/td>\n24GW<\/td>\n25.5GW<\/td>\n27GW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Biomass<\/strong><\/td>\n6GW<\/td>\n9GW<\/td>\n6GW<\/td>\n7GW<\/td>\n8GW<\/td>\n9GW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Geothermal<\/strong><\/td>\n0.5GW<\/td>\n1GW<\/td>\n0.5GW<\/td>\n1GW<\/td>\n1GW<\/td>\n1.5GW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n

    Onsite storage batteries <\/strong><\/p>\n

    (at demand locations)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

    		8GW<\/strong><\/td>\n8GW<\/strong><\/td>\n11GW<\/strong><\/td>\n11GW<\/strong><\/td>\n11GW<\/strong><\/td>\n11GW<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Grid-scale storage batteries<\/strong><\/td>\n8GW<\/strong><\/td>\n10GW<\/strong><\/td>\n10GW<\/strong><\/td>\n11GW<\/strong><\/td>\n12GW<\/strong><\/td>\n13GW<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Pumped storage<\/strong><\/td>\n20GW<\/td>\n20GW<\/td>\n20GW<\/td>\n20GW<\/td>\n20GW<\/td>\n20GW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Nuclear power<\/strong><\/td>\n27GW<\/td>\n33GW<\/td>\nSmall: 23GW or Large: 37GW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Thermal Power<\/strong><\/td>\n\n

    Small: 96.9GW\u00a0or Large: 135.8GW<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

    		\n

    Small: 66.3GW\u00a0or Large: 133.7GW<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Following the formulation of these scenarios, the basic approach<\/span> will be to regularly monitor changes in assumptions and other factors, review the scenarios every three to five years<\/span>, and, if necessary, carry out earlier reviews<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Figure 1 Outline of the draft report by the Study Group on the Future Electricity Supply and Demand Scenarios<\/span><\/p>\n

    Source: Materials of the 10th meeting of the Study Group on the Future Electricity Supply and Demand Scenarios (June 25, 2015), complied by RTS Corporation<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":14491,"template":"","blogs_category":[49],"class_list":["post-14445","blogs","type-blogs","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","blogs_category-pv-market-size-installation-volume"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFuture Electricity Demand Forecast | RTS Corporation<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Based upon over 40 years of our experiences and accumulated knowledge in PV,RTS Corporation has been providing in RTS Corporation is a leading PV industry \/ market consultingcompany and has been supporting the growth of the PV industry for nearly 40 years.We provide an optimal consulting service for each client interested in the PV business.\u3000Weekly PV news is available at RTS PV Blog.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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