Japan Solar Update: No.134 (Feb 3 ~ 7, 2025)
The Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ANRE) under METI announced that it will start to apply the revised rules for priority dispatch which stipulate the order of output curtailment between FY 2026 and FY 2027. The rules were scheduled to be applied during FY 2026, but because several improvements were planned to deal with the change of other related schemes, etc., ANRE will swiftly apply the rules in sequence to the area where these improvements are completed. Under the new rule, the output of FIT power sources will be curtailed first and then FIP power sources, and thus FIP power sources are not subject to the curtailment for the meantime.
<Key points>
- As a result of calculating the output curtailment rate, although the rate was high in the Tohoku (44%) and Hokkaido (26%) regions, the effect of reducing output curtailment due to grid measures was large, and significant decrease was made in the Tohoku, Hokkaido, and Kyushu regions
- As a general rule, payment of demolition costs is required to be deposited at the start of the project
- The output curtailment rate after the revision of the priority dispatch rules was calculated on a trial basis. When setting the FIP ratio at 25%, the output curtailment rate increased for the FIT systems, which are curtailed first, but significantly decreased for the FIP systems
- The change of the order of output curtailment will start in FY 2026 to FY 2027, from the area where the system renovation is completed
Long-term outlook of renewable energy output curtailment (calculation results)
Output curtailment rates of PV and wind power under the rules of unlimited and uncompensated curtailment
As electricity demand is expected to increase following the progress in DX (digital transformation) and GX (green transformation), electricity demand is estimated to be 1.1 times the value for the 2033 outlook in the FY 2024 supply plan
Results of calculation after the revision of the priority dispatch rules
PV output curtailment rate when setting the FIP rate to 25%
The change of order of output curtailment will start in FY 2026 or FY 2027 from the areas where the system renovation is completed
Figure 2 Summary of calculation results, etc., of the outlook for renewable energy output curtailment
Source: Materials of the 53rd meeting of Working Group on Grid Connection of Renewable Energy (December 2, 2024), compiled by RTS Corporation