The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) has been discussing the revision of the Sixth Strategic Energy Plan since May 2024, alongside the formulation of the GX2040 Vision, a long-term government strategy targeting 2040.The framework of this vision includes the following: 1) energy; 2) location of the GX industry; 3) structure of the GX industry, and 4) creation of the GX market. The draft of the Seventh Strategic Energy Plan will be reflected in the part of 1) energy.
Under the circumstances such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and escalating tensions in the Middle East, the global energy situation has changed drastically from the time of the formulation of the current Sixth Strategic Energy Plan which focused on decarbonization. Therefore, the Seventh Strategic Energy Plan will aim to simultaneously accelerate decarbonization efforts and enhance energy security, and the target years of the plan will be extended from 2030 to 2035 and 2040. Although the installed capacity of PV , among other renewable energy sources, has been expanding toward the FY 2030 target of 120 GW under collaborative efforts among the relevant ministries and agencies, the revised Strategic Energy Plan also is poised to include the PV installation targets for the next five years and 10 years.
As for the outlook of Japan’s power demand, a significant increase is expected in the industrial sector, including construction and expansion of data centers and semiconductor factories. Therefore, it is necessary to invest in decarbonized power sources and drastically strengthen the supply capacity, while significantly reducing fossil fuel-based power sources. In order to accelerate the decarbonization of power sources, it is necessary to intensify the autonomous introduction of PV, which is expected to be a main power source, from 2030 onward and to step up the introduction scale from the current 5 GW/year to over 10 GW/year. It will be essential to not only focus on existing markets but also to explore new market opportunities to expand installation.
METI is currently utilizing the GI Fund to develop film-type perovskite solar cells (PSCs) that leverage their lightweight and flexible features, enabling broader deployment, including deployment in locations such as on roofs where it has been difficult to install crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar cells due to their weight. PSCs are positioned as next-generation solar cells, and efforts are being made to establish a mass production technology, develop a production framework, and create demand, through a comprehensive approach, rather than limiting the support solely to technological development as in the past. Furthermore, to expand the introduction of next-generation solar cells based on PSCs and to strengthen industrial competitiveness, a public-private council has been established. As shown in Figure 1, the council consists of academic experts, representatives from the supply side, utilization side, and user side, as well as the government ministries and agencies (METI, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), Ministry of the Environment (MoE), Ministry of Defense (MOD), Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC), and the Financial Services Agency (FSA)), along with prefectural governments, municipalities, research and development institutions, and the financial sector. The council will discuss topics such as the targets of installed capacity and price, establishment of domestic supply chains, overseas deployment, and the discussions will be compiled into a next-generation solar cell strategy, which will be reflected in the Seventh Strategic Energy Plan. By integrating the flow from technological development to demand creation and the stakeholders from the supply side to the user side under the governmentdriven industrial policy to pursue the creation of new markets, the predictability of supply-side business will be increased, and the reestablishment of a PV supply chain within Japan will be facilitated. It is crucial to develop this council into a public-private dissemination promotion council that not only serves as a venue for strategy development but also promotes the full-scale expansion of PV introduction by creating a roadmap to meet the national PV installation targets and defining the roles and responsibilities of each council member in their respective areas of expertise as the following step.
Meanwhile, as the cost of power storage technologies, such as storage batteries, is decreasing significantly worldwide, PV systems are being integrated with the power storage technology and are beginning to evolve into 24/7 PV systems (24 hours a day, 7 days a week) which greatly reduce the burden on the grid. The possibility of overcoming the past disadvantages such as the variability of power sources and constraints of electric grids has come into view. Considering the future development of PV, including the practical application of these nextgeneration solar cells and 24/7 PV systems, setting of an installation target aimed at increasing dependence on PV power generation is anticipated as part of the formulation of the Seventh Strategic Energy Plan. Furthermore, regarding Agro‐PV systems, which are expected to expand in the field of ground-mounted PV systems, a publicprivate council can be established by the leadership of MAFF, METI, and MoE. This council will be modeled after the previously mentioned public-private council and will include participants from related industries. The goal is to achieve both food and energy security with a fundamental focus on agriculture and regional development, and to pave the way for the deployment of Agro PV systems
Figure 1 New developments toward the commercialization of next-generation solar cells