The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) held a meeting of the Subcommittee for Large-volume Introduction of Renewable Energy and Next Generation Electricity Network and launched efforts to develop new measures to achieve the target installed capacities of renewable energy in the Seventh Strategic Energy Plan (SEP) in 2040.

The subcommittee conducted interviews with the Ministry of the Environment (MoE), the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), and the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) about their efforts to date on the introduction of renewable energy and future efforts to further expand the introduction of renewable energy.

Based on the projects under their jurisdiction, each ministry reported on the results of the introduction to date and the future introduction and development of PV systems for housing, private facilities, public facilities, infrastructure facilities, regional decarbonization, Agro PV, next-generation solar cells, etc.

In the next meeting, it is planned to deepen discussions on the overall picture of renewable energy policy based on the report by METI. Since there is a discrepancy between the progress and the target for the introduction of renewable energy based on the energy mix in 2030, it is expected that measures to introduce and deploy PV power generation will be further strengthened in the future.

The Seventh SEP calls for a significant increase in the ratio of PV power generation to 23~29% of the energy mix, and as shown in Figure 1, the pillars of the PV introduction and development in the future include the early social implementation of rooftop PV systems, ground-mounted PV systems, and next-generation solar cells.

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Figure 1 Basic concept of PV power generation in the Seventh Strategic Energy Plan

The target PV installed capacity in 2040 based on the SEP is equivalent to 200~280 GWAC, and assuming that the cumulative installed capacity to date is 75 GWAC, the cumulative new PV installed capacity will be 125~205 GWAC.

Although this target can only be achieved after 15 years of continuous installation of 8~13 GWAC per year, as shown in Table 1, Japan’s PV market is divided into a building market consisting of houses, public facilities, and private facilities, and a non-building market consisting of ground-mounted PV systems, Agro PV systems, and floating PV (FPV) systems. The two markets have the potential to grow to 20 GW annually, 4~5 times from today’s annual installation of 4~5GWAC.

On the other hand, today’s environment for the PV introduction is in a difficult situation where the degree of freedom in selecting suitable sites is narrowing, and output curtailment and surplus power are required to be addressed, and new measures by the relevant ministries and agencies are the key factor.

For the growth of Japan’s PV market, as shown in Table 1, it is essential to establish a framework to accelerate the introduction of PV power generation by mobilizing all the measures, budgets, laws and regulations, regulatory reform, taxation, standardization, technological development, etc. under the jurisdiction of the relevant ministries and agencies.

It is expected that the target PV installed capacity by the relevant ministries and agencies for 2040 will be set hereafter, but at the same time, it is also important to set the target for each market in order for the PV industry and electricity consumers to work to expand the PV introduction. Japan is now at an important turning point in putting the PV installations back on a growth path and accelerating the transition to renewable energy.

By breaking down the target PV installed capacities in the SEP by market, the predictability of development in each market will increase, and for the PV industry, it will be possible to strengthen the business foundation for the next-generation PV industry, which will play a role as a leading power source in Japan by forming players according to the market, forming businesses, and securing and training human resources.

For the group of electricity consumers, it will be easier to plan the choice of PV power generation in order to promote the transition to green power.

In addition, for local governments, it is possible to promote the introduction and development of local collective PV power generation taking advantage of various markets in order to revitalize local production for local consumption and the local economy.

Japan must position the six markets in the two domains of PV power generation as prioritized growth markets for the future introduction and expansion of PV power generation, and the relevant ministries and agencies must work together to promote strong measures to support the PV introduction in accordance with these markets, and expand the circle of introduction and development by combining the strengths of the public and private sectors.

Table 1 Estimated market size following the target PV installed capacities toward FY 2040　　　　　　　　　　　                                                                         

Source: RTS Corporation “Forecasting PV Installed Capacity in Japan 2023 to 2035”, edited by RTS Corporation