Japan Solar Update: No.95 (May 6 ~ 10, 2024)
Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ANRE) under the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) announced the outlook of renewable energy output curtailment for FY 2024 at the 50th meeting of the Working Group on Grid Connection of Renewable Energy of the Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy.
<Key points>
- The outlook for renewable energy output curtailment for FY 2024 was reported. The Kyushu area has the highest rate at 6.1%, followed by the Chugoku area at 5.8%, the Shikoku area at 4.5%, and the Tohoku area at 2.5%
- In the Tokyo area, the probability of output curtailment due to supply and demand constraints is low in FY 2024
- Compared to the forecast for FY 2023, the output curtailment rate in the Tohoku, Chugoku, and Shikoku areas is estimated to increase by about 1 to 2%
- The main factors for the increase include an increase in the installed capacity of renewable energy, a decrease in demand, a decrease in the amount of electricity transmitted outside the area using interconnection lines, and the resumption of commercial operation of nuclear power plants
The outlook for renewable energy output curtailment for FY 2024
- The interconnection line utilization rate is based on the most recent data
- In the Tokyo area, the probability of output curtailment due to supply-demand constraints in FY 2024 is low
According to the outlook for renewable energy output curtailment in FY 2024, the output curtailment ratio will increase by about 1 – 2% in the Tohoku, Chugoku, and Shikoku areas compared to the outlook for FY 2023
Main causes of the increases
| Tohoku | Decrease in demand (3% decrease from FY 2022) |
| Chugoku | Decrease in demand (3% decrease from FY 2022), reduction of the amount of electricity transmitted outside the area using interconnection lines, suspension of work due to the repair plan for pumping water (February to July), resumption of commercial operation of nuclear power (from September) |
| Shikoku | Decrease in demand (5% decrease from FY 2022), suspension of work due to the repair plan for pumped water (November), bipolar suspension work on the Kansai-Shikoku interconnection facility (March) |
In the Kyushu area, the output curtailment ratio decreased due to a decrease in the number of sunny days (expected) compared to the FY 2023 outlook
Figure 1 Outlook of renewable energy output curtailment for FY 2024
Source: Materials of the 50th meeting of Working Group on Grid Connection of Renewable Energy (March 11, 2024), compiled by RTS Corporation