Five months have passed since the discussions toward the formulation of the Seventh Strategic Energy Plan began at the Strategic Policy Committee of the Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy. Nine meetings of the Strategic Policy Committee were held so far, and deliberation for setting new national targets based on the previous discussions are becoming fully-fledged.

After the formulation of the Sixth Strategic Energy Plan in 2021, the global energy situation changed dramatically due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The policy for the formulation of the Seventh Strategic Energy Plan remains unchanged with the basic policy of simultaneously achieving “S+3E”, but will now also focus on energy security in addition to decarbonization. Furthermore, due to the need to integrate the formulation of the GX 2040 Vision which is being promoted under the current administration, with that of the Strategic Energy Plan, the next energy mix will also be linked to the GX 2040 Vision, extending the target year from the previous 2030 to 2040, looking 10 years further ahead. In light of the energy security measures being taken by countries around the world, the government of Japan will make a concerted effort to advance energy policy, industrial policy, and climate change countermeasures, leading to strengthening the industrial competitiveness.

In the previous nine meetings of the Strategic Policy Committee, important themes for the revision of the Strategic Energy Plan, such as “situation around energy”, “current situation and issues of decarbonized power sources”, “current situation and issues of stable power supply and the ways of achieving decarbonization of thermal power”, “next-generation fuels, Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS), critical minerals, etc.”, and “efforts toward GX and energy conservation and conversion to non-fossil fuels”, have been discussed and deliberations have progressed, including hearings from diverse stakeholders and various generations, such as economic organizations, the energy industry, the financial industry, consumer groups, and student groups.

In this context, as shown in Figure 1, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) identifies the challenges for introducing renewable energy as follows: 1) renewable energy introduction in harmony with local communities; 2) reducing the burden on the public; 3) responses to output fluctuations; 4) accelerating innovation and establishing a supply chain, and 5) management of end-of-life PV modules, and presented the political challenges for promotion of the future introduction and development of renewable energy. Furthermore, the key issues for promoting the future expansion of PV introduction include the three points as follows: 1) rooftop PV systems; 2) ground-mounted PV systems, and 3) social implementation of next-generation solar cells.

In the hearings, opinions and requests regarding the formulation of the Seventh Strategic Energy Plan were expressed by a number of various organizations. The Japan Business Federation (Keidanren) expressed the view that creating an environment that enables access to renewable energy is important and that efforts should be made to maximize the introduction of renewable energy with established business disciplines.

The Renewable Energy Association for Sustainable Power supply (REASP) presented three approaches toward mass introduction of renewable energy and making renewable energy a main power source as follows: 1) increasing renewable energy; 2) not reducing renewable energy and 3) integrating renewable energy market and adding high values to renewable energy, and outlined the actions required of renewable energy business operators. The Japan Climate Leaders Partnership (JCLP) proposed to set priority areas such as accelerated introduction of rooftop PV systems, aiming to achieve a renewable energy ratio of 60% or more in the 2035 energy mix. The National Liaison Committee of Consumers’ Organizations (Zenkoku shouhisha dantai renrakukai) called for strengthening policy measures to accelerate the introduction of renewable energy and maximize its use. Although there are issues regarding renewable energy, the majority of opinions acknowledge the importance of renewable energy and call for its expansion and acceleration.

Toward the year end, the Strategic Policy Committee will advance the deliberations on power system reform, improvement in the environment of energy business, and cost verification by power source and of the entire system, and will move toward formulating the Seventh Strategic Energy Plan with the vision for future energy and setting the energy mix based on GX 2040. Although there are issues for large-scale introduction of renewable energy and hurdles to expand PV installation, clear approaches for overcoming the issues and hurdles through institutional design, legal frameworks, technological development, and industrial policies, and efforts to address the issues and hurdles are already underway.

The annual global PV installation is entering an era of 500 GW with the accelerated evolution of PV technology itself, national governments are moving toward addressing the fluctuating nature as a power source, grid constraints, and location restrictions unique to PV from the standpoint of economic efficiency. Examples include integration of PV with power storage technologies such as storage batteries and dual utilization of installation sites such as farmland and parking lots (dual solar), and the barriers hindering the expansion of PV introduction are beginning to crumble as the PV market expands it base. Japan must not fall behind this global trend, and based on the challenges and key issues toward the formulation of the Seventh Strategic Energy Plan shown in Figure 1, Japan must clearly position itself as to achieve the annual PV market of at least 10 GW while pursuing continuous expansion of PV introduction.

Figure 1 Challenges of renewable energy introduction and key issues in PV deployment

Source: Materials of the 58th meeting of the Strategic Policy Committee of the Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy under METI (July 8, 2024), complied by RTS Corporation