The Cabinet approved the Seventh Strategic Energy Plan, and PV power generation, which has been positioned as the top power source by 2040, will move to a new phase based on the new Strategic Energy Plan. In conjunction with the GX (Green Transformation) 2040 Vision and the Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures, which were approved by the Cabinet at the same time, the Strategic Energy Plan forms the framework of a policy that promotes a stable energy supply, economic growth, and decarbonization in an integrated manner.
In 2011, the FIT Act was enacted, and the Feed-in Tariff (FIT) program was launched in July 2012, with which the introduction of PV power generation was rapidly launched. To be precise, in November 2009, the scheme to purchase the surplus power from residential PV systems at a double price was started under the Act on the Promotion of Use of Non-fossil Energy Sources and Effective Use of Fossil Energy Materials by Energy Suppliers was launched. If this is considered to be the starting point for the spread of PV power generation, half of the 30 years until 2040, which is the target year of the Seventh Strategic Energy Plan, has already passed.
Looking back, it can be said that the FIT program has pushed for the expansion of PV introduction, and in the process, the issues such as output curtailment, grid constraints, location constraints, and ensuring harmony with local communities were identified and addressed through amendments of the program, regulatory reforms, and legislation, etc. It can be said that, over the 15 years, efforts have been made on “pursuing quantity” and “improving quality”. If we assume the past 15 years as the first phase of the PV deployment period, 75 GW of PV systems were introduced during this period. Meanwhile, the recently formulated Seventh Strategic Energy Plan has set a target of doubling the PV installed capacity to around 150 GW over the next 15 years.
The world has achieved 500 MW/year of installation and is moving toward the TW scale of annual installation. With this Strategic Energy Plan, Japan will be able to break out of the current stagnation in the introduction of PV power generation and start moving toward expanding the introduction once again in order to achieve the target PV installed capacity by 2040. This is because the GX 2040 Vision, the Seventh Strategic Energy Plan, and the Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures serve as guidelines for future policy measures to be taken by the relevant ministries and agencies, and directions for developing investment plans for the PV industry and the groups of electricity consumers. It is essential for the relevant ministries and agencies to work together with local governments to develop measures to expand the PV introduction and to reform regulations at a faster pace and scale than ever before. Mandatory measures such as mandatory installation according to the installation area will also be necessary. At the same time, it is essential for the PV industry and the groups of electricity consumers to take the initiative in introducing at least 10 GW per year. As shown in Figure 1, the future expansion of introduction will move to a new phase based on self-reliance with government support and will proceed to the second phase of deployment.
Until now, PV power generation has been introduced at the expense of the public for the purpose of pursuing quantity and economic rationality through the FIT program, that led to reduction in the cost of PV power generation and the formation of the market. As a result, promotion of dissemination and social recognition have been successfully achieved. Hereafter, PV power generation must play a role as a responsible power source for Japan toward 2040 while further enhancing economic rationality, overcoming grid constraints and location constraints, which are issues for PV power generation, and promoting coexistence with local communities.
In the new phase, the PV market is required to develop into a self-sustaining market that achieves pursuit of a stable supply of energy in terms of both quantity and quality, and social acceptance with low cost, safety, and security. In such a self-sustaining market, PV power generation as a power generation business and PV power generation for self-consumption will both exist, and the introduction of PV power generation from both sides will accelerate. With the spread of the PPA scheme, the introduction of PV power generation is not an investment, but a means of reducing fixed costs. By strengthening business discipline and improving social acceptance, PV in harmony with local communities that leads to the development of the communities will be promoted. In addition, technological development and regulatory reform will create new markets for the use of buildings and farmland, and the sophistication and functionality of PV power generation combined with storage batteries will also advance. By stepping up to the next phase in this way, PV power generation must advance to a power source that coexists with society and develop into a power source that supports self-consumption as well as local production for local consumption. This will be the form of PV power generation that will blend into the society that is responsible for the formation of a decarbonized society by 2040.
From now on, each of the relevant ministries and agencies will set new introduction targets in order to achieve the 2040 introduction target, and will drastically strengthen the development of policy measures, including industrial policy. As the degree of freedom in selecting suitable sites for PV installation has narrowed, it is necessary to overcome the severe situation of being forced to curtail output and to deal with surplus power due to the expansion of the PV installed capacity, and the PV introduction on a double scale to the past must be realized. In order to achieve this scale of additional introduction, it will be necessary for the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and the Ministry of the Environment (MoE) to take an initiative and act together with relevant ministries and agencies, local governments, industry, and electricity consumers to establish the Public- Private Council for the Expansion of the PV Introduction dedicated to PV power generation, and to draw up a roadmap to share the goals.
©RTS Corporation
Figure 1 New phase of PV power generation