RTS Corporation has released the English version of “Forecasting PV Installed Capacity in Japan toward FY 2030/2050 (2020 – 2021 Edition)”.
In this report, RTS Corporation forecasted PV installed capacity in Japan toward FY 2030 and FY 2050 after overcoming the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, pushing forward to make renewable energy a mainstream power source. As well as forecasting annual and cumulative PV installed capacity taking into account of the social backgrounds and system cost reduction to the international level, etc. toward FY 2030, a specific path towards realizing a market exceeding “150 GW PV installation by FY 2030,” which RTS Corporation has continuously advocated, is indicated.
Moreover, consideration was given so that the forecasts work as a key to future planning by presenting forecasted images of PV installation until FY 2050. Besides analysis of installation trends under the FIT program, business models such as TPO and PPA, dissemination of storage systems and electric vehicles (EVs) triggered by the expiration of the FIT purchase period, new PV applications such as BIPV systems, etc. are reflected in the forecasts. Post-FIT market forecasts and market forecasts of residential and industrial storage systems are included as well.
As for installation forecasts, analysis was made for two scenarios, the “BAU scenario”, where policies and deregulation are supposed to be carried out as an extension of the current situation, and the “Accelerated installation and technology development scenario (Accelerated scenario)”, where the government, ministries and agencies are supposed to implement aggressive policies and measures and technology development of PV and peripheral technologies are accelerated.
As a result, as shown in Figure 1, in FY 2030, the annual market of 7.9 GW and the cumulative PV installed capacity of 133 GW (DC-based, the same shall be applied hereinafter) are estimated under the “BAU scenario” and the annual market of 12.9 GW and the cumulative PV installed capacity of 165 GW are estimated under the “Accelerated scenario”. The PV installation target (64 GW) in Japan’s energy mix for FY 2030 has already been accomplished and a market with an additional 100 GW is expected to be formed in the future, which will cover 15 % of the electricity demand as the pioneer of mainstream power sources.
Figure 1 Forecast of annual and cumulative PV installed capacity in Japan toward FY 2030
(DC-based, BAU scenario and Accelerated scenario)
As for the trends of PV installed capacity by capacity range under the BAU scenario and the Accelerated scenario, expansion of the market for self-consumption and the supply/ demand integrated market in the post-FIT era, in addition to construction of FIT-approved large-scale projects over a few years, will be important. As shown in Figure 2, in the first half of the 2020s, while the market for PV systems which utilize the FIT program and the tender scheme will occupy a certain portion of the market share, the market for self-consumption and the supply/ demand integrated market will lead the PV market through new business models such as zero-Yen installation.
The market for < 10 kW PV systems, mainly led by residential PV systems, will show an increasing trend again driven by the improvement of the installation rate of PV systems as standard equipment on newly built detached houses and the dissemination of net zero energy house (ZEH), however, it will likely reach the ceiling due to the decrease of housing starts. While the expansion of the market driven by further dissemination of PV systems on existing detached houses is expected, efforts towards development of light-weight PV systems, PV systems with simplified construction, and PV systems whose cost can be recovered in a short term are imperative.
In the market for ≥ 10 kW industrial PV applications, the market for ground-mounted PV systems for which suitable land is decreasing, will be replaced by the market for rooftop PV systems of different sizes. Furthermore, from around 2030, the “New applications” market (“New Fields”, in addition to emerging markets such as floating PV systems, PV systems on farmland), that cultivates brand new PV application fields, is forecasted to grow. The PV market has the possibility to grow further to annual 10 to 20 GW scale by FY 2050.
The trends of PV installed capacity by application based on the types of use and the trends of PV installed capacity by service area of electric companies, which shows regional distribution, are also presented with detailed data.
Figure 2 Forecast of PV installed capacity by application toward FY 2030 (Accelerated scenario, DC-based)
As the premises of this forecast on PV installed capacity, the significant cost reduction of residential/ industrial PV systems will be continued, reflecting the international price levels. As shown in Figure 3, the price of a PV system under the “Accelerated scenario” currently ranges from 139 Yen/W to 242 Yen/W, and is expected to decrease to between 89 Yen/W and 111 Yen/W by FY 2030. In the preliminary calculation, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) has already reached 9.8 Yen/kWh to 13.6 Yen/kWh, which is lower than the grid electricity charge, and is expected to decrease to between 5.2 Yen/kWh and 5.5 Yen/kWh for top runner projects in FY 2030, close to the avoidable cost level.
Figure 3 PV system price forecast toward FY 2030 under accelerated scenario
Also, the price and the installed capacity were forecasted for “storage system”, an indispensable partner of PV systems which takes a leading role among the distributed power sources. As shown in Figure 4, the installed capacity of residential storage systems (stationary storage batteries and V2H (Vehicle to Home) systems, etc.) is expected to increase to potentially up to 4,050 MWh/year by FY 2030 driven by the termination of the FIT power purchase period, disaster prevention and improvement of resilience, etc. The report also forecasts installed capacity of industrial storage systems, which is expected to increase in response to the growth of the supply/ demand integrated market, etc.
Figure 4 Forecast of installed capacity of residential storage systems (accelerated scenario)
The above contents are compiled in the latest RTS annual report “Forecasting PV Installed Capacity in Japan toward FY 2030/2050 (2020 – 2021 Edition)”. It is a must-have as a basic material for business planning and partnerships by businesses engaging in the manufacturing and the installation business such as manufacturers and distributors of PV system, manufacturers of inverter/ mounting structure/ measurement and monitoring/ transforming equipment/ other components, as well as EPC, etc. This report includes contents that are the key for future business for all stakeholders related to PV including the service/ support side such as energy, finance and insurance, O&M, mass media, policy makers, etc.
For details of RTS English reports, please click here.